China
China shipped 11.3 Mt of CBAM goods to the EU in 2025 (10 % of all CBAM imports, up 43 % on 2024). Most of the exposure comes from iron and steel. At default values the 2026 CBAM bill would be about €2.80 bn, ranking it 1st of 152 countries.
What it exports
| Sector | Tonnes 2025 | Value | Exposure 2026 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron and steel | 9.1 Mt | €13.4 bn | €2.47 bn | €4.17 bn |
| Aluminium | 612 kt | €3.23 bn | €198 m | €321 m |
| Fertilisers | 1.6 Mt | €373 m | €131 m | €188 m |
| Cement | 33 kt | €12.0 m | €3.6 m | €6.4 m |
Products with the largest exposure
Default value (2026, incl. mark-up) and CBAM benchmark in tCO₂e per tonne.
| CN code | Product | Tonnes | Default | Benchmark | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7308 90 98 | Structures and parts of structures of iron or steel, n.e.s. (excl. bridges and bridge-se… | 863 kt | 6.639 | 1.491 | €368 m |
| 7207 12 10 | Semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy steel, containing by weight < 0,25 of carbon… | 745 kt | 3.486 | 1.364 | €132 m |
| 7326 90 98 | Articles of iron or steel, n.e.s. | 764 kt | 3.384 | 1.491 | €121 m |
| 3102 21 00 | Ammonium sulphate (excl. that in tablets or similar forms, or in packages with a gross w… | 1.4 Mt | 1.303 | 0.414 | €107 m |
| 7228 30 69 | Bars and rods or alloy steel other than stainless steel, only hot-rolled, hot-drawn or h… | 231 kt | 6.732 | 1.613 | €98.0 m |
| 7207 11 16 | Semi-finished products, of iron or non-alloy steel, containing by weight < 0,25 % carbon… | 550 kt | 3.486 | 1.364 | €97.7 m |
| 7210 49 00 | Flat-rolled products of iron or non-alloy steel, of a width of ≥ 600 mm, hot-rolled or c… | 501 kt | 3.526 | 1.491 | €85.5 m |
| 7308 40 00 | Equipment for scaffolding, shuttering, propping or pit-propping (excl. composite sheetpi… | 197 kt | 6.639 | 1.491 | €84.3 m |
| 7225 11 00 | Flat-rolled products of silicon-electrical steel, of a width of ≥ 600 mm, grain-oriented | 139 kt | 8.899 | 1.779 | €82.0 m |
| 7225 19 90 | Flat-rolled products of silicon-electrical steel, of a width of ≥ 600 mm, cold-rolled "c… | 133 kt | 6.732 | 1.488 | €57.6 m |
| 7228 30 61 | Bars and rods of alloy steel other than stainless steel, only hot-rolled, hot-drawn or h… | 130 kt | 6.732 | 1.613 | €55.0 m |
| 7225 92 00 | Flat-rolled products of alloy steel other than stainless, of a width of ≥ 600 mm, hot-ro… | 128 kt | 6.732 | 1.706 | €53.2 m |
Outlook
Same 2025 volumes, same certificate price (€82.32), default values throughout.
Carbon pricing in China
China's national ETS, which started with power generation, was extended in 2025 to steel, cement and aluminium smelting. Allocation is intensity-based and largely free in the first years, so the carbon price effectively paid per tonne of product is low.
Where it sits on the map
Read more
- Policy
Carbon prices abroad and the CBAM deduction
- Data
Why default values are expensive
- Sectors
Blast furnace, DRI or scrap: why the steel route sets the price
- Exporters
A checklist for producers outside the EU
Nearby in the ranking: Indonesia, Türkiye.
Sources: Eurostat Comext (DS-045409), annual 2025; Implementing Regulations (EU) 2025/2621 and 2025/2620. See methodology.