Indonesia sent 3.2 Mt of CBAM goods to the EU in 2025 — almost three times its 2024 volume of 1.1 Mt, and only 3 % of all CBAM imports. Yet in the default-value scenario it ranks 2nd for CBAM exposure, at €2.02 bn in 2026. The reason is a single number in the EU’s default value table.
Above nine tonnes of CO₂ per tonne
For flat-rolled steel, Indonesia’s 2026 default value is far above other large suppliers — and even above the “other countries” fallback:
| Origin | Flat-rolled steel (7208), 2026 default, tCO₂e/t |
|---|---|
| Indonesia | 9.053 |
| China | 3.506 |
| India | 4.708 |
| Other countries | 4.454 |
Indonesian stainless semi-finished products carry similarly high values. Averaged over everything Indonesia ships, the exposure is €623/t — the highest of any large supplier.
Where the number comes from
Default values are built from emissions data for producers in each country. Indonesia’s steel industry has grown quickly around nickel processing and integrated mills that run largely on coal-fired power and coal-based reduction, which is widely seen as the driver of its very high carbon intensity. The default does not distinguish between plants: a cleaner mill in Indonesia is judged by the national figure until it provides verified data.
With a default this high, verified data is worth hundreds of euros per tonne.
What to watch
- Whether the 2025 surge was a one-off ahead of CBAM or a lasting shift — the 2026 trade data will tell.
- Installation-level verified data from Indonesian producers, which would replace the default for their customers.
- The Commission’s review of default values, due by the end of 2027.
See also why default values are expensive.